A data analyst for the group, formed in part to amplify physician voices during the pandemic, based the forecast on the current growth rate of cases in Illinois and the tight correlation between cases and hospitalizations, IMPACT co-founder Dr. Shikha Jain said. Admissions tend to lag behind new infections by about two weeks.
The projections don’t take into account college students who are heading home or Thanksgiving travel that could push caseloads even higher, Jain said. The projections also do not account for the state’s stay-at-home advisory that experts hope will prevent ICU bed shortages if people follow it.
“When we reach Thanksgiving, I’m sure our numbers are going to be significantly higher unless people start taking this seriously and wearing a mask and following the restrictions that have been recommended,” Jain said. “After Thanksgiving, I think that we’re going to see a… surge again.”